Early Market Talk June 23, 2020

Emtheader

Weak close yesterday, improved crop ratings on corn and Twitter noise about China trade deal had overnight trade lower. At one-point corn was off 7 and beans 11¢.

At 0650 CN20 recovering to off 3¢ and soybeans 2 ¾¢. Volume on these lead two contracts at 40 and 24K respectively. KC wheat trading a scratch lower at $4.30 ½.

Dow futures 240 points higher at 26,213. Crude 79¢ higher at $41.53. US $ showing modest weakness after a sharp decline yesterday. Technically the $ looks to lose more ground which would be favorable to US export competitiveness around the world.

US Trade advisor Navarro in a tweet stated the trade deal with China was “over”. Shortly after, another tweet stating the comment was not as it seemed. Says he was trying to make a broader point about “trust”.

Weekly corn crop condition showed 72% of the nations corn crop rated G/E which was a point higher than last week and well above the 5-year ave of 69%. Soybean G/E rating off 2 points on the week to 70%.

Corn seasonal that typically rolls over mid to late June upon us. With no crop threat, does the pattern repeat this year? Corn price already the lowest this date in 11 years apart from ’16 and a few brief weeks in ’14. Of course, we are also looking at the largest projected stocks use ratio over this time as well making it seem warranted.

CZ20CN21 moving at 24 ¾¢ this morning a penny wider. Seasonal price weakness plays into the spread as well.

Corn price pattern looking problematic with trade below the up-trending channel overnight. Will see how this plays out but not encouraging.

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