Early Market Talk March 13, 2020


The bar set for years to come. Every serious virus in the future we shut down the country? Cure worse than the malady? For some perspective between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 mo of 2009 from H1N1. Coronavirus has killed 4,700 globally and 40 in the US to date. Don’t recall the kind of hysterics we have today back in ‘09. “We’re from the Gov’t and we’re here to help”. Certainly, do not make light of those that have lost life, but some perspective needed.

Dow futures smashed over 2,300 points yesterday. Dow futures this morning rebounding 1,100. Was yesterday the high point of the bearish pendulum swing? I hope so.

Grains started weak overnight but rebounding. At 0630 CK20 up 3 ¾¢ at $3.69 ½ with SK20 8¢ higher at $8.67 ½. KC and Chi wheat 4¢ higher.

Crude $1.70 higher at $33.25. US $ sharply higher.

Brazilian Real crushed and at new lows yesterday. With soybeans traded around the world in US $, the Brazilian farmer sees the highest soybean price ever due to their weak currency. (Pic in email body) Need to investigate how much of the Brazilian producers’ inputs are imported and impacted by currency. Suspect it’s significant.

Some analysts expect the Fed to reduce lending rates to zero next week. Corn export sales yesterday at 1.599 mmt were the second best for that period ever. Soybeans at 304K tonnes and the lowest sale total for this week in over 5 years.

Rains continue in Argentina to aid late developing crops. SA soy production largely set in the 182 mmt area. (6,679 Billion bu.)

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