Early Market Talk May 11, 2020


Weekend temps (Saturday) not as cold as feared by some resulting in cosmetic damage to early emerged corn in the eastern belt. Likely hear a story or two of a bean field nipped and will need replanting but certainly no large-scale issues. Coldest spot this morning Aberdeen SD at 31°. Sioux Falls and SW MN ~39°.

At 0600 CN20 trading 1 ¾¢ higher at $3.21 with SN20 giving up a ½¢ at $850 ¼. Chi and KC wheat off 1 ½¢. CKCN even money with a few days left on the Ck20 contract.

Dow futures start the week giving up some ground off 18 1points at 24,106. Crude off 61¢ at $24.13. US $ Index showing strong gains.

WASDE monthly crop reports tomorrow at 11:00 and will give us the first look at the 20/21 balance sheets. Trade focused largely on demand destruction produced with a surprisingly wide range of estimates. Hard to imagine not seeing some shade of a 2.5 billion 20/21 corn carryout. An estimate like this would be the largest corn carryout in absolute terms since 1988.

Corn planting expected near 70% with many suggesting the best planting conditions in years. Soybean planting expected near 45% complete. This week should all but rap up planting.

Updated with CFTC data Friday we show Funds holding a net short of 185K corn (44K more than previously thought) and net long 20K soybeans.

Weather forecast for late may looks beneficial with temps trending above normal and periodic rainfall. Suspect we will stop the weekly crop ratings with some high numbers later this month.

Hurry up and wait for tomorrows USDA numbers……………………..

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