Early Market Talk May 12, 2020


Report day arrives. Numbers at 11:00 with trade near universal in its expectation for a record large corn carryout. Sell the rumor buy the fact in store?

At 0600 CN20 off a ½¢ at $3.18 and has held a 1 ¼ high to low range. SN20 up 2 ¼¢ at $8.57 ¼ in a 7 ¼ price range. KC and Chi wheat both giving up some ground overnight.

Dow futures in positive territory this morning at 24,209. Crude $1.31 higher at $25.45. US $ a scratch lower.

Corn planting at 67% nationally a shade below trade expectations. Compares to a five year average this date of 56% and just 28% last year. Soy planting at 38% also below trade ideas. Ave soybean planting pace this date 23%.

WASDE report at 11:00 this morning and expected to show 20/21 corn ending stocks at 3,389 mln bushels. As noted previously would be the largest initial carryout stocks for corn since 1988.

Largest corn carryout decline from Initial forecast to the final was 1,060 mln bu in 2012. Largest decline ever between initial and final was 1,459 mln bu in ’88.

A lot of bearishness out there in corn and I get it. Record stocks have a way of painting a bleak price picture. However, reminded that a year ago we had a billion bu soybean carryout with another one forecast and yet soybean price held a buck and a half premium to price equilibrium.

Rains expected to increase across the north central and western Midwest and eastern Plains this week. Much warmer next week and beyond. Cold weather over……………

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