Early Market Talk May 13, 2020


Report day in the mirror and held few surprises. Demand questions linger for both corn and soybeans with some optimistic (but not unreachable assumptions by USDA. My biggest take away was new crop 20/21 soybeans have little if any risk premium with a 405 mln bu carryout and a stocks / use ratio under 10.

At 0600 CN20 off 1 ¾¢ at $3.20 ½ with SN20 1 ¼¢ lower at $8.50 ¾. Both on typical overnight volumes.

One of the biggest reports of the year yesterday met with uninspiring volume totals. Corn vol at 344K and soybeans just 183K. Interesting Open. Interest jumped 24K in corn and near 7K on soybeans indicating new longs entering the market.

Funds credited with buying 15K corn yesterday bringing their net short to 172K. Funds sold an estimated 3K soybeans and now net long 22K.

Dow futures gaining 145 points this morning at 23,719. Crude a scratch higher at $25.90. US $ Index showing a modest decline.

CKCN corn spread a 2 ½¢ inverse with a projected 2 billion bu carryout and delivery values 7¢ from working? Last trade day for CK20 tomorrow.

Price scatter on soybean futures shows new crop values holding little if any risk premium. That or trade firmly believes demand for 20/21 drastically overstated. (If you did not see that scatter let me know)

USDA to review and make known more details on the latest $16 billion aid package for producers today.

Weekly energy report later this morning. Ethanol and gasoline use interesting to see as well as stocks.

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