Early Market Talk May 15, 2020


Yesterday one of the slowest hedge activity days I can recall. CME volume rivaled any holiday shortened session with just 204K corn and 135K soybean contracts trading. Sign of the times. New crop hedge deck remains one of the smallest on record. Old crop not so impressive either. You know who has the ownership.

At 0600 CN20 trading ¾¢ higher at $3.18 ½ on vol of 9K contracts. SN20 1 ½¢ higher at $8.38 ½ with 10K contracts trading. KC and Chi wheat 2 ¾ and 3 ¾¢ higher as well.

Dow futures trading 180 points lower after modest gains yesterday. Crud up 25¢ at $27.81. US $ Index has a weaker tone.

NOPA crush report later today and expected to be record large for April. Ave trade guess a scratch over 170 mln bu.

Informa corn and soybean acreage update yesterday had corn at 94.16 and soybeans at 85.39 mln bu. Compares to USDA at 97 mln corn and 83.5 mln soybeans. Keeping everything else constant, would make corn carryout 2,861 and soybean C/O at 53 mln bu.

Some big rains overnight favoring SE IA, N IL and NW IN overnight with 3” totals in many areas. More rain for the western belt over the weekend. Drought talk must wait.

Looking at CZ price action the previous 5 years against makes it hard to believe CZ20 runs sideways to lower the balance of the year. Fundamentals as we know them today suggest otherwise.

Last two years we saw CZ grind lower into harvest this date forward were ’13 and ’14. Quick look at those years to follow.

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