Early Market Talk May 18, 2020

Emtheader

Corn and soybeans starting the week green with wheat struggling. Too much rain in portions of the eastern belt. Ares SW of Chicago and into IN have seen upwards of 6” totals over the past few days. Trade noise China looking to build food / feed reserves through state owned and private entities getting some press.

Early trade has CN20 trading 1 ½¢ higher at $3.20 ¾ and inside a 2¢ high to low range. SN20 5¢ higher at $8.44 ½ inside of a 7 ¼¢ range. Chi and KC wheat giving up 3 ¼¢. Typical overnight volume all the way around.

Adjusted with CFTC data last Friday, we have the Fund net short 229K corn. Represents the largest net short since May of a year ago. April a year ago Funds held a net short of 344K.

Weekly crop progress report this afternoon expected to show corn planting pushing 85% complete. Soybean planting near 55%. Good / Excellent ratings wait for another week or two.

April NOPA crush a record for the month of April at 171.75 mln bu. 

More noise of corn losing some planted acres to Soybeans since the March 31st planting intentions report. Not enough to change corn fundamentals but takes some of the shine of soybean price potential. Still a yield game and at this point and hard not to favor trend type yields for both. Long growing season, however.

SN20 Key reversal scored April 21st still intact. Since then, soybeans have shown a series of higher highs and higher lows. Think they call that a trend.

Weekly export inspections later this morning. Crop progress reports this afternoon……

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