Early Market Talk May 18, 2021

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Strong overnight price performance. Both corn and soybeans holding respective chart support areas yesterday prompting spec buyers to take a shot. 

At 0630 CN21 trading 110162 higher at $6.63 1⁄2 with SN21 10 1⁄4¢ higher at $15.97 1⁄4. Vol on these two at just over 26 and 14K to this point. KC wheat up 6¢. MW up 7 1⁄2¢ at 7.22 1⁄2.

Yesterday’s trade volume in corn the lowest since April 30th. Soy volume the lowest since April 5th. Open interest in corn off 11,562 yesterday with soybeans off just 315 lots. 

Corn crop nationally 80% planted and 12% ahead of the five year average this date of 68%. CO, KS, OH the only states running behind pace. IA, IL, MN, SD, and NE at 94, 86, 95, 86 and 86%. 

WASDE has never shown a corn yield increase from the initial May forecast to June. 

Well followed Brazil crop analyst leaves his weekly production forecast for that country unchanged this week at 97 mmt. Forecast rains look to stabilize production. Forecasted, rains. 

Weekly corn export shipment pace exceeding what is required to meet USDA’s revised 2020/21 export forecast. 

China announced it plans to extend tariff exemptions of 79 U.S. products that were originally set to expire on 18 May. 

Soybean oil made a new contract high yesterday. And again overnight. 

Morning weather headlines - U.S. corn/soybean planting well ahead of 5-year average. Wetter weather finally expected for safrinha corn this weekend. Soil moisture to decline for palm in Southeast Asia. 

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