Early Market Talk May 19, 2021


Lot of red on the screen this morning. Soybeans and Dow futures leading things lower. Dearth of new news keeps additional price strength in question. China corn sales confirming last weeks rumors. US crop off to a good start. Rain forecast for Brazil’s Safrinha corn crop to stabilize production. WE could go some time without fresh and compelling news.

At 0600 CN21 off 3 3⁄4¢ at $6.54 1⁄2 (vol 17K). SN21 12 3⁄4¢ lower at $15.61 1⁄2 (vol 21K). KC wheat off 12¢ with MN Wheat off 4 1⁄2¢

Dow futures trading 253 points lower at 33,743. Tech sector declines and Bitcoin losses leading the Dow lower. Interesting headline this morning; “Homebuyers are applying for ever bigger mortgages as home prices soar”. 

New crop corn spreads continue to largely mirror flat price action. Trading best levels for the month. 

Crude a buck thirty lower at $64.19. US $ index sharply higher. Scratch higher against the Brazilian Real. 

Corn open interest off 4K contracts yesterday and now lower in six of the previous seven sessions. Corn volume yesterday at just 336K contracts also the lowest volume day in a month. 

First day of the Kansas wheat tour finding some impressive yields. 

Lite showers moving through Nebraska and into SW IA this morning. Another broken line of lite showers on the Il / IN border. 

Quick look at weekly NC IA crush calculation later this morning. 

Morning weather headlines - Wetter weather expected in the northern Plains. Dryness to increase across North China Plain. Cool weather to continue in Europe next 10 days. 

Overnight trade continues to recover after last weeks washout and yesterday’s late corn rally into the close. No compelling story leaves market vulnerable to further weakness however as we move forward on the calendar.

Trade volume yesterday again on the lite side for corn and soybeans. Corn open interest up for the first time in six sessions. 

At 0600 CN21 trading 5¢ higher at $6.63 1⁄4 and has seen a 9 1⁄4¢ high to low range. SN21 6 1⁄4¢ higher at $15.44 1⁄2 in a 17 3⁄4¢ range. MN wheat a couple cents higher this morning with KC giving up some ground. SBO trading lower. 

Dow futures off 146 points this morning working after three straight lower closes. Moving in on the May 13th low. 

Funds were sellers of an estimated 5K corn and 15K soybeans yesterday. Estimated net long 226K corn and 131K soybeans with updated CFTC data tomorrow afternoon. 

7-period RSI on corn this morning at 44. Hit a low of 33 last Friday. Soybean RSI on the spot contract a scratch under 40. 

Weekly corn grind for ethanol totaled 104.4 mln bu, exceeding the pace required to meet USDA’s forecast by 6.67 mln bu. 

New crop soybeans still trading higher than any price on a SX contract the previous 7 years. 

Carl Zulauf of Ohio State University says farmers overseas have expanded harvested area of grains and oilseeds by an average 17.8 million acres annually since 2003. Any bets they beat the average this next year? 

Export sales report later this morning and expecting some big new crop corn numbers. Will not show announced Chinese corn purchases this week. 

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