Early Market Talk May 21, 2021


Battle developing between weak corn technical picture and strong cash markets. Suspect money flow could win the day in the short run. Corn has seen a four-day price consolidation. Soybeans a new low off the $16.67 1⁄2 high just seven sessions ago.

At 0600 CN21 trading 8¢ lower at $6.56 1⁄2 on volume if just under 20K contracts. SN21 20 1⁄2¢ lower at $15.12 3⁄4 on vol of 18K. MN and KC wheat 2 1⁄4 and 6 1⁄2 lower at $6.93 1⁄4 and $6.69, respectively. 

Dow futures 155 points higher this morning at 34,185. Crude 75¢ higher at $62.69. US $ Index a scratch lower. 

Strong cash markets mentioned above. Best of season corn basis trades at two NC Iowa end user locations yesterday at +50CN. Soybeans not so much. Weak bean basis a head fake? 

CN21 building a bear flag? Downside target would be near $5.50 a rough 90¢ break. Pushing through a 38% fibonacchi retracement and near 50% of the entire Bull move. Three months of sideways price congestion on the daily chart in that area as well from Jan to the end of March. 

What is the 1,257,000,000th bushel of corn that nobody wanted or needed to use this year worth? 

New crop soybean spreads (SXSF) reluctant to show a carry. Trading at a 1⁄4¢ inverse this morning. Some might want to look at a SXSF CSO put for 5¢? Not tradeable right now but something to consider? Pros and cons with that type of strategy. 

CFTC commitment of trader’s data this afternoon could be interesting. Just how much of the Fund long has been dumped this past week. 

NOAA’s summer forecast indicating warm and dry in the west but largely good conditions for the heart of the U.S. growing areas. 

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