Early Market Talk May 24, 2021


Markets sharply lower out of the gate Sunday night. KS wheat tour finding excellent yields and favorable start to the 21/22 corn growing season accounting for most of the negative price pressure. That and traded and tired bullish stories. The Bull pendulum certainly had hit its terminus two weeks ago.

Low corn and soybean volume last week. Corn volume Friday at 223K contracts the 4th lowest total of the year. Thursday and Friday combined soybean vol at 294K the second lowest two-day total of the year. 

At 0600 CN21 trading off 9 3⁄4¢ and has seen a low as much as 14¢ lower. Vol on the lead corn contract nearing 25K contracts as of this writing. SN21 off 9 3⁄4¢ $15.16 1⁄2 on volume of near 19K contracts. SN21 right at 20¢ high to low price range overnight. 

CFTC data showed Fund long in corn at 294K contracts. The first time in several weeks trade guess on corn Fund position was under the CFTC data. Soybean net long as of Tuesday 144K. 

SXSF hit even money overnight equaling the best level since March 30th. SXSF has not seen a carry since mid-December. New crop corn spreads a scratch better overnight but remain much tighter than a near 75¢ futures break and 1,500 carryout would suggest. 

Technical picture on corn remains problematic with fibonacchi price target od near $5.87 and $5.42.

Quick check on the “buy” CZ seasonal that runs between May 10th and June 9th. Negative trade equity this morning of 77¢. Looks to be heading for 12 out of 16. 

Export inspections at 10:00 this morning. Crop progress this afternoon. 

Morning weather headlines - Forecast trends cooler and wetter since Friday in the central U.S. Rain to further ease dryness in the Canadian Prairies this week Weekend rain favored eastern safrinha corn areas. 

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