Early Market Talk May 27, 2021

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Two-sided overnight trade on corn and soybeans. MN and KC wheat on the positive side all night. 

At 0600 CN21 trading 1 1//4¢ higher at $6.25 3⁄4 and 2¢ off the session high. SN21 giving up 6 1⁄2¢ at $14.97 and 5¢ off its session low. MN and KC wheat 7¢ higher. 

Dow futures a scratch lower this morning at 34274. Crude off 52¢ at $65.69. US $ Index near unchanged. 

Ethanol profitability remains high with production matching year ago levels. Stocks at 18.98 million barrels are at 5-year lows. 

After months of demand talk, trade grudgingly shifting to production ideas. Next year’s demand (even if bigger) can easily be covered with 2 – 4 mln more corn acres and an above trend yield. Admittedly, a long summer growing season ahead and no answers yet on the above. Risk premium will remain until we start to see the reality of production covering that demand. 

NASS survey for the June acreage report starts today. Will not see those numbers until the July WASDE Supply / Demand report. Have never seen a yield increase in the June WASDE report and only a decline with terrible conditions. This year no production change in the June report which could make it a quiet report. 

Export sales at 0700 will include the 5.5 mmt of new crop corn sales to China last week. We will see a big new crop corn number this morning. 

All working orders on the SXSF at 1¢ carry filled yesterday. Trading fractions overnight. 

Several corn processors have backed off basis push. Dime lower in many instances and more indications of coverage through August at a few. 

Freeze warnings, freeze watches and frost advisories are in effect for much of North Dakota and parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin this morning. 

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