Early Market Talk November 10, 2020


Report day with November WASDE Supply / Demand and NASS production data at 11:00 this morning. Trade expecting a drop in both corn and soybean yields with corresponding drop in carryout. Corn arguably has some room to give. Not so much with soybeans.

At 0630 CZ20 2 ¾¢ higher at $4.10 ¼ with SF21 4 ½¢ higher at $11.15. Vol totals to this point 23 and 25K contracts. KC wheat slipping below unchanged.

Dow futures up 185 points this morning after wild ride yesterday. Dow working on 7 higher closes out of previous 8. Crude 29¢ higher at $40.58.

Nine weeks into the crop year we have a record 48.5 mmt or 81% of the USDA soybean export forecast sold. Only need to sell 15.4 mmt over the remaining 43 weeks to hit the mark. Strong argument for a larger forecast today?

Strong crush margins and exports show no signs of rationing. Lower yield today gets us a step closer to that necessity. No guarantee we see a lower nation yield either.

Well followed analyst leaves his soybean production forecast for Brazil unchanged at 132 mmt with a neutral to lower leaning bias. Corn estimate lowered 2 mmt to 108 mmt with a lower bias given late planting and lingering stress in southern areas.

Corn and soybean harvest 91 and 92% complete. Corn harvest 11% ahead of the 5-year ave with soybeans just 2% above.

Rain across much of the Midwest today, with snow likely across the NW Midwest. Heaviest rain expected in eastern Iowa and southern WI today. Heaviest snowfall in MN and WI. Drier weather the rest of the week, but another round of showers expected this weekend. Dry weather will continue across the western Plains, maintaining stress on winter wheat establishment.

Report day price limits, 25¢ on corn, 70¢ on soybeans and 40¢ on wheat………

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