Early Market Talk November 12, 2020


Corn market showing big volume totals again overnight with 84K trading as of 0600. Soybean volume more subdued at 36K. Yesterday, both CZ20 and SF21 made new highs for their respective moves. Corn open interest up 5K with beans dropping near 6K.

Corn market trading softer overnight after new high for the move yesterday and a close near session lows. At 0615 CZ20 $4.15 ½ off 1 ¾¢ with SF21 2 ¼¢ lower at $11.50 ¼. KC and Chi wheat both giving up some ground as well.

Dow futures off 230 points this morning at 29,089. Crude 18¢ lower at $41.27.

CZCH hit 10¢ overnight. Today is the last day of the Goldman roll. With that and other market dynamics, would consider having all CZ20 positions not going to be priced moved forward.

SFSH pushing in on even money.

As of last night, CZ20 represented near 24% of total open interest with CH21 at near 40%.

Funds credited with selling 20K corn yesterday bringing their estimated net long down to 306K contracts. We have them buying 8K soybeans for a net long estimated at 274K.

Yesterday looked at corn stocks use vs price data showing Tuesday’s rally taking us to equilibrium based on USDA data. Without additional “news” and Funds with a huge long could prove tough to make new highs.

Soybean stocks / use perspective suggest price has plenty of room to the upside. May need additional news as well to move the needle. South American weather and production ideas increasing in importance.

Export sales later this morning……………….

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