Early Market Talk November 18, 2020


South American weather continues to lead and help attract spec buying into Ag markets. Overnight rains in Brazil termed disappointing in northern areas. South Still dry.

At 0630 CZ20 trading 2 ½¢ higher at $4.22 ½ with SF21 8¢ higher at $11.77 ¾. CZ on the nightly high and 5 ½¢ below last week’s high of $4.28. SF making another new high for the move overnight.

Dow futures up 143 points this morning at 29,860. Crude oil nearly a buck higher at $42.36. US $ Index giving up some ground. US $ against the Brazilian Real a scratch lower.

On yesterday’s rally C Z open interest jumped another 25K contracts. Soybeans OI up near 5K.

No hint of demand rationing in soybeans yet. Price needs to work to a level that becomes apparent and or Brazil beans work into US ports the second half of the year.

YTD soybean sales at 82% of the current USDA estimate. Throwing out the last two years the average this date over 5 years has been 65% of the total. Current USDA estimate of 2,200 mln bu too conservative or a market that is extremely front loaded?

CZCH trading in to 4 ¾¢ overnight. Corn basis continues to trade at some historical best levels in select areas.

Morning weather headlines; Some improvement for Brazil, but more rain needed to end dryness. December outlook shows dryness for Argentina. EAI weekly energy reports and a quick look at cash crush values later this morning.

Pfizer says final data analysis shows Covid vaccine is 95% effective – plans to submit to FDA in ‘days.

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