Early Market Talk November 18, 2020

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South American weather continues to lead and help attract spec buying into Ag markets. Overnight rains in Brazil termed disappointing in northern areas. South Still dry.

At 0630 CZ20 trading 2 ½¢ higher at $4.22 ½ with SF21 8¢ higher at $11.77 ¾. CZ on the nightly high and 5 ½¢ below last week’s high of $4.28. SF making another new high for the move overnight.

Dow futures up 143 points this morning at 29,860. Crude oil nearly a buck higher at $42.36. US $ Index giving up some ground. US $ against the Brazilian Real a scratch lower.

On yesterday’s rally C Z open interest jumped another 25K contracts. Soybeans OI up near 5K.

No hint of demand rationing in soybeans yet. Price needs to work to a level that becomes apparent and or Brazil beans work into US ports the second half of the year.

YTD soybean sales at 82% of the current USDA estimate. Throwing out the last two years the average this date over 5 years has been 65% of the total. Current USDA estimate of 2,200 mln bu too conservative or a market that is extremely front loaded?

CZCH trading in to 4 ¾¢ overnight. Corn basis continues to trade at some historical best levels in select areas.

Morning weather headlines; Some improvement for Brazil, but more rain needed to end dryness. December outlook shows dryness for Argentina. EAI weekly energy reports and a quick look at cash crush values later this morning.

Pfizer says final data analysis shows Covid vaccine is 95% effective – plans to submit to FDA in ‘days.

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