Early Market Talk November 19, 2020


Decent rain overnight in parts of northern and central Brazil the impetus for the overnight selloff. Rains favored Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo, eastern MGDS and Santa Catarina. Unchanged forecast with rains to favor east central and northern areas today. Drier weather in central areas this weekend into next week allowing crop stress to rebuild.

Nerves raw as well on potential lockdowns looming with growing Covid cases around the world. Add to the mix nearly everybody that wants to be long probably is and the stage set for a correction.

At 0630 CZ20 off 6¢ at $4.19 ¾ with SF21 12 ¾¢ lower at $11.63. Another night of big volume with over 60K contracts of corn and soybean trading on their respective lead two contracts.

Dow futures a scratch lower this morning at 29,367. Crude giving up 22¢ at $41.57. US $ Index showing solid gains. Brazilian real giving up ground against the US $ this morning.

Soybeans have seen a 16¢ high to low range overnight. Corn a 6 ¼¢ range.

Funds credited with buying 10K corn and 6K soybeans yesterday. Now estimated long 268K corn and 250K soybeans.

Corn open interest up 2,193 contracts yesterday on volume of 480K contracts. Soybean OI up 3,210 contracts on vol totals of 291K. Corn and soybeans both made new highs for their respective moves yesterday. Corn by a ½¢ and soybeans by 11 ½¢.

Some best of year corn basis trading at select locations. Some basis sales made with CH21 hedges rolled back to the CZ picking up a few more cents. Export sales at 0730 with trade expecting corn sales of between 600 and 1,000K mt. Soybean sales expectation in a range of 600 – 1,200K mt.

Market perhaps overdue to take a break and catch its breath…………

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