Early Market Talk November 26, 2019

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Random price walk continues with little change overnight. At 0600 CZ19 trading ¾¢ lower at $3.69 ¾ with SF20 off a ½¢ at $8.92. Both inside a 3¢ range and showing typical night session volume.

Dow futures a scratch higher this morning at 28,045. Crude $58.17 up 16¢. US / China trade negotiators held another phone call this morning in which consensus was reached on properly resolving issues holding up the phase-one trade deal. Little reaction from markets not surprising given all the false starts.

Crop progress report has corn 84% harvested and near trade expectations. Leaves 13 mln acres unharvested or roughly 2 bln bu still in the field. North Dakota has 70% of the corn crop still standing in the field. MI and WI also substantially lagging their 5-year ave harvest paces.

CZCN trading 21 ¼ this morning with one more session before first notice day on deliveries. Registrations unchanged overnight at 216 lots. Would expect that number to jump tomorrow afternoon.

Biggest weekly soybean inspections of the season this past week at 1.943 mmt or 71.4 mln bu. China took 2/3rds of the total. To date shipments to China near 200 mln bu roughly 40% of YTD inspection total.

Funds credited with buying 14K corn yesterday bringing their estimated net short to 140K contracts.

Oats Know? Oat futures (OZ19) made a new contract high for the move yesterday at $3.22 ½. Have rallied 74¢ off the May low.

Markets remain rangebound on a random walk down the price path.

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