Early Market Talk November 3, 2020


Election day! Get out and vote. 

One thing missing from all the political noise this round but holds huge implications, budget deficits and fiscal policy. Fiscal year 2020 budget deficit at $3.1 trillion largely blamed on Covid. That is three times the 2019 shortfall. 

AT 0600 CZ20 up 4 1/4 cents with SF21 14 cents higher at $10.66 1/4. Vol totals on these two at a respectable 28 and 19K contracts. KC and CHI wheat up 8 cents each. 

Dow futures trading 441 points higher at 27,237. Crude up a buck and change at $37.97.

Dalian corn futures sharply lower overnight. 

StoneX crop survey has national corn yield at 178.9 just a scratch below our October estimate. Soybean yield came in at 52.1 bpa compared to our Oct number of 52.4 bpa.

Corn harvest at 82% nationally up 10% on the week and 13% above the 5-year average. Iowa at 87% complete is 49% higher than last year. Soybean harvest at 87% up 4% on teh week and compares to the 5-year average of 83%. 

Soybean sales to China at a record 26 mmt to this date. The Olympic average for the previous 10-year period of ytd sales as a percentage of the total comes in at near 58%. This year smart money has it at near 68%. Three years over this time it has been 70% or higher. 

Soybean deliveries dropped off to 118 contracts overnight. RJO customer the stopper. 

Soybean price continues to receive underlying support tightening balance table and South American weather under La Nina conditions. 

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