Early Market Talk November 4, 2020

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No clear winner in US Presidential election yet this morning with PA, NC, GA, Wi and MI up for grabs.

Unlike last year post election day, Dow futures nearly unchanged at this writing but have seen a 772 point high to low range.

At 0600 CZ20 off a ½¢ at $40.00 ½ with SF21 5¢ higher at $10.69 ¼. Vol on these two contracts 47 and 28K respectively. KC wheat in positive territory. Chi in the red a couple cents.

Crude up near a buck at $38.63. US $ little changed but also has seen a wide range overnight. Mostly on the upside but failing to take out last week’s high.

Funds credited with buying 9K corn and 10K soybeans yesterday. Best guess is Funds net long 216K corn and 197K soybeans.

Last weeks soybean export sales total equaled near 73% of the USDA annual forecast of 2,200 mln bu. The average of the previous five yeas is near 59%. Question of the day; is the export program severely front loaded or is the annual total going to be substantially larger?

Palm oil trading higher than soybean oil on world markets. Also, the highest level since 2012.

Just to pump the brakes on the bullish soybean fundamentals, daily bean chart showing classic bearish divergence.

Rains near expectations in Brazil yesterday. Forecast unchanged with rains favoring northern and eastern areas through the weekend. Dryness building in western, central and southern bean areas. Limited showers across Argentine soybean areas allowing dryness and stress to increase.

Weekly NC Iowa calculated soybean crush data out shortly………………

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