Early Market Talk November 9, 2020

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CFTC data Friday showed Funds holding a long corn position 54K contracts largerthan trade ideas. As of Friday, we show them now net long 284K contracts. The largest net long since March of 2014.

Commercial short in corn futures a record 1,113,547 contracts. Record hedge position and basis at historically high values in many areas. Own it when it’s cheap, sell it when it’s expensive comes to mind.

At 0600 CZ20 trading off 2¢ at $4.11 ¾ and has seen a 5 ½¢ high to low range. SF21 trading 7 ½¢ higher at $11.08 ¾ in a 9 ½¢ high to low range. Decent vol totals overnight of 29 and 28K respectively. KC wheat a scratch lower.

Dow futures up over 1,000 points at this writing. Pfizer and BioNtech reporting a Covid vaccine that is 90% effective.

Crude up $1.82at $38.97. US $ showing modest gains this morning.

USDA 10-year Baseline numbers released Friday and had ‘21 US corn acreage at 90 million. Soybean acreage at 89 million with wheat acreage at 46 million.

WASDE monthly Supply / Demand report tomorrow with trade expecting a slight decrease in corn and soybean yields. Ave guess on corn ending stocks still above 2 billion. Bu. Soybean C/O near 235 mln bu and if verified would be the smallest soybean carryout estimate since the 15/16 crop year at 197 mln bu.

Crop progress this afternoon should show corn harvest near 91% complete with soybeans at 95%.

From the time I started typing to now…….CZ20 is now 2 ¼¢ higher with beans up 14¢. Stock market up over 1,300 points.

Weather headlines this morning - Improvement expected in Brazil over the next 10 days. Showers for the Midwest early this week and next weekend. Dry weather for the Black Sea Region next week.

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