NASS showed the largest deviation in history with a 331 mln bu difference between the WASDE Sep forecast and NASS Sep 1st corn stocks. The last
sizeable stocks decrease (138 mln bu) from a Sep WASDE report was in 2012 which produced a limit move of $0.40. NASS showed a corn carryout
of 824 mln bu that year. CZ12 closed at $7.16 that day. Stocks today 2 ½ times that amount. Bulls need to take a deep breath!
At 0630 CZ19 giving up some ground off $0.02 at $3.86 with SX19 a scratch lower at $9.05 ¾. Both showing modest volume overnight. Chi and
KC wheat $0.03 ¼ and $0.05 lower respectively.
Corn open interest off 34K contracts yesterday indicating more short covering than new buying. Soybean OI up 15K contracts.
FC Stone production survey later today. If you are a participant and have not shared your numbers with me, please do so today. Your input a year
ago was almost spot on, a year later. We were consistently lower than USDA last year and data yesterday vindicated what you told us.
Nass Sept 1st corn stocks at 2,114 mln bu only marginally smaller than the previous two years which were 2,140 and 2,295. A year ago, this date
new crop corn carryout was estimated at 1,774 mln bu (this year 1,849 adjusted for stocks data) and CZ18 was trading $3.56 ¼. Bulls are going to
need some help with yields if this rally attempt continues.
Funds estimated net short 152K contracts after covering 25K yesterday.
Iowa corn stocks at 396 mln bu. Smallest state ending stock estimate since 14/15 crop year. Will take a closer look at some basis comparisons
later this morning.
NWS 6 -10 forecast is much drier this morning…………………………
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