Early Market Talk October 3, 2019

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Short covering continues. Corn futures open interest off 7K contracts yesterday on thin volume of 259K corn contracts. For contrast on volume, Monday corn trade was 542K contracts.

Dow Jones hammered yesterday with renewed recession fears. Dow futures indicating a firm open this morning trading 58 pts higher at 26,045. Crude unchanged at $52.63. US $ Index a scratch lower.

At 0600 CZ19 and SX19 trading fractionally lower at $3.87 ¼ and $9.13 respectively. Both on thin volume. Chi and KC wheat a couple cents lower.

Clear radar over Iowa this morning but drove to work the whole way with wipers on? Harvest continues to get pushed back with basis implications at select end users.

Tight corn stocks coupled with lateness of harvest activity keeping basis red hot (as in name your price hot) at select locations. Posted basis showing 30 – 40 cent inverses still at several locations. Reminded of the old saying; The last thing to go through the corn grinder before you run out is the Merchandiser!!!

Extended price contracts work well for the producer with old crop stocks in this environment. But, so does just a flat cash sale!!!

SXSF back on top of 14 cents after trading into 11 ½ on Mondays rally.

Weekly export sales this morning. Trade expecting corn sales between 400 – 800K tonnes and soybeans between 900 – 1,400K. Soybean sales data should include considerable Chinese business seen last week.

NW ½ of Iowa to see general ¾” to 1 ½” rain totals Fri/Sat. Next week not rain free but does promise some dry days. Enough to get rolling?????

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