Early Market Talk October 10, 2019

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Good day of harvest activity yesterday but shut down today as a line of showers move through this morning. Snow as advertised starting to fall in northern areas. Forecast more favorable for harvest to resume and intensify next week.

CZ19 trading unchanged at $3.94 ¼ with SX19 up $0.01 ¾ at $9.25 ½ at 0630. Both on typical volume. KC and Chi wheat showing gins of a couple cents.

Dow futures off 64 pts at 26,240. Crude a scratch higher at $52.72. US $ Index showing modest losses.

WASDE Supply / Demand report later this morning. Ave trade guess on corn yield at 167.5 (USDA Sep 168.2) and soybeans at 47.3 (USDA Sep 47.9). Headlines trade first, then reality. As always good practice to have any and all orders in and working just in case. Not expected to be tested this morning but limits are 25 cents on corn and 65 on soybeans.

Market running out of gas? Today’s report better gives some fuel to the Bulls or we could see some price weakness develop. Corn near upside technical targets and soybean near downtrend resistance?

CZCN in “No Mans” land at 20 ¼ this morning. Spread has tightened on flat price action and running into technical resistance at 18 ¼. Market needs a compelling story to tighten further.

Still some quick ship push on corn basis out there. Cedar Rapids processor looking for corn at the equivalent of +32 truck delivered. Three locations had to pass with no corn in position to ship. NW IA processor paying +50.

Weekly export sales at 0730 and should show some decent soybean activity with Chinese business this past week.

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