Early Market Talk October 11, 2021

Emtwebsite

Tight 3 1⁄4¢ overnight price range in corn to start the week. Soybeans a more sizeable range leaning toward 16¢. Technical picture anything but encouraging on both.

Last week saw CZ21 lose 7 1⁄2¢. SX21 off just 3 1⁄2¢. Both appear to be on the glideslope to first notice day lows. 

Can count on one hand the number of days this year daily soybean volume has outpaced corn. Thursday and Friday last week were two of those days. Soy vol at 140 and 178% of corn respectively. Open interest growing in each with hedge activity helping. 

Brazil soybean planting rolling and well ahead of a year ago. The state of Mato Grosso a year ago this date just 3% planted. Source has them north of 20% heading into this past weekend. 

Updated with CFTC data Friday, Funds net long 238K corn and remains problematic. May well help price hit the above mentioned. Fund net long in soybeans down to a net 43K contracts. 

WASDE monthly Supply / Demand Report tomorrow. Incorporates September stocks data and new yield estimates. A lot of moving parts and as we have seen over the past 18 months, room for a surprise. 

Daily price limit on corn now 40¢ and a buck on soybeans. 

Arguably the best rains of the year over parts of North and South Dakota the past three days. Timing could have been better. 

Dalian corn futures trending lower since January. CME corn futures trending lower since May. 

At 0630 CZ21 trading unchanged at $5.30 1⁄2 with SX21 a penny better at $12.44. Dow futures giving up 80 points at 34,549.

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