Early Market Talk October 1, 2021


Interesting stocks report yesterday that incorporated rare, but not unprecedented, production revisions. Corn production in ’20 adjusted downward .6 of a bu to 171.4 and harvested acres down 100K. Soybean acreage for ’20 adjusted up 300K with a yield up .8 of a bu which resulted in an 81 mln bu production increase.

Wheat not left out of production revisions with fewer acres harvested and slight yield reduction. 

Yesterday’s numbers did nothing to reduce risk of corn falling to the open chart gap area left April 1st between $4.77 1⁄2 and $4.80 3⁄4. Soybean price risk on technical considerations to $11.84 and $11.01 area not out of the question. 

StoneX production survey next Monday. Early conversations with my subset of participants indicate a substantial increase for Iowa. 

Funds estimated net long 221K corn and 44K soybeans. Corn number still a major concern. As noted previously, Fund long in corn has been near or above the 200K contract threshold going on a year. The longest period in history. Every other time they were net long over 200K contracts; they ultimately built a position net short of at least 100K contracts. Will history repeat to see liquidation of near 300K contracts in the coming months? 

Trade vol yesterday 342K on corn and 332K on soybeans. Soy volume the largest since June 18th. Interesting to see Open Interest up on both with a gain in corn of just under 6K contracts and soybeans adding just over 8K contracts. 

CZCH hit 8 1⁄4¢overnight. SXSF at 10¢. China on Holiday next week. 

At 0630 CZ21 trading a penny higher at $5.37 3⁄4. Sx21 off 2 3⁄4¢ at $12.53 1⁄4. Wheat with double digit gains in Chi. KC knocking on the door. 

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