Early Market Talk October 2, 2020


President Trump, first lady Melania test positive for coronavirus. Dow futures off over 500 points after the announcement. This will certainly add a wrinkle to politics with the election weeks away.

At 0630 CZ20 off 3 ¼¢ at $3.79 ½ with SX20 7¢ lower at $10.16 ½. Volume at 25 and 23K respectively. KC wheat off 6¢.

Dow futures now off 399 points at 27,288. Crude losing another $1.60 trading $37.12. US $ Index higher.

StoneX production survey has the US corn yield now at 179 bpa down .6 bpa from our September survey and .5 above Sep USDA estimate. IA corn yield at 188 was 4 bpa lower than Sep and 3 bpa below USDA. Soybean yield at 52.4 bpa was down .5 from our Sep survey and .5 above USDA.

USDA October crop report and Supply / Demand updates a week from today. New production estimates and will incorporate Sep stocks data released this week. Only thing for sure is 20/21 Carryin will be 1,995 mln bu on corn which implied a 5,900 mln bu feed / res use number.

Interesting to see if USDA increases corn export forecast considering recent US corn purchases from China.

Spreads continue to languish with CZCN at 18 ½¢ and SXSF at 3 ½¢ this morning. With Funds long 100K+ corn and 200K+ soybeans combined with Goldman roll next week, suspect we will see better levels on both.

“Goldman Roll” takes place the fifth to the ninth business day of a month preceding an expiring contract month.

Brazil fob soybean basis for March trading a buck under US values for February.

As always will be interesting to see updated CFTC data this afternoon regarding Fund and trade positions.

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