Early Market Talk October 22, 2019

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Trade resolution optimism switch in the “on” position. Trump suggesting “again” a deal will be signed, this time at the APEC meetings in Chile in November. Lack of harvest progress under trying conditions also lending support.

At 0600 CZ19 trading $0.04 higher at $3.91 ¼ on vol of 22K contracts. SX19 up $0.10 at $9.44 with 34K trading. KC and Chi wheat also higher. Dow futures up 24 pts this morning at 26,821. Crude $0.25 higher at $53.56. US $ a scratch firmer after a new low for the move made yesterday.

Corn G/E rating up 1% on the week to 56% indicating better yields? Harvest progress on corn at 30% and below trade expectations. Soybean G/E rating at 54% also 1% better than trade guess. Soybean harvest at 46% and a touch better than trade guess.

Brazil soy planting near 21% complete. Well below last years pace but on par with the five-year average.

Interesting to note the current and previous year have seen soybean carryout’s change to a degree larger than some of the largest carryout’s ever seen. Last year C/O grew 498 mln bu. This year has declined 510 mln bu from the initial May estimate. Graphic of this to follow.

How many producers would sell corn today at $4.10 CZ19 futures? Can do that for next year. CZ20 at $4.10 is roughly $0.42 higher on average than they were trading this date over the previous 5 years. Will send a quick chart of that shortly as well.

Higher markets on trade optimism and tough harvest conditions. Whatever the crop was two weeks ago, it’s less today?

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