Early Market Talk October 23, 2019

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Corn futures volume yesterday a mere 225K contracts. Over 30K of that spread trade. Anticipate another low volume session today with focus on harvest. Typical 10-day store / sell decision time hitting in a few areas and resulting in modest hedge activity.

Trade quick to recognize the 10 MMT tariff free soybean imports announced yesterday are largely factored into USDA balance sheets.

News fits the “Buy the Rumor Sell the Fact mode? Starting Wednesday with mixed trade. At 0630 CZ19 off ¾ of a cent at $3.87 ¼ with SX19 off $0.01 ½ at $9.32 ½. Chi and KC wheat firm.

Dow futures slipping 45 pts this morning at 26,715. Crude off 58 pts at $53.92. US $ Index a scratch higher.

Harvest progress slowed with wet field conditions over a large par to f the country. Some scattered lite rain in northern Iowa today followed by a couple clear days. Heavier rains this weekend for the eastern belt? Will we see a “Gut Slot” harvest this year with hit and miss activity?

Funds holding a net corn short guesstimated near 68K contracts this morning. Have covered nearly 100K contracts over the previous 30 days. NC Iowa soybean Crush margins back on top of a buck a bushel. Breakdown to follow shortly.

Limited soybean processor basis sales taking place. Big board carry, reduced production and commercial attitudes set to produce a better than historical post-harvest basis pop. Some locations perhaps as much as 40 cents.

CZ20 at $4.10 getting a harder look from originators and producers around the country. Structured products evaluated as well.

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