Early Market Talk October 5, 2021

Emtwebsite

Nervous trade overnight in part by rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China. 

StoneX crop survey has the national corn yield at 176.6 bpa. Estimate was down from our September survey of 175.4 bpa and .9 bpa below the USDA’s September estimate. IL at 204 is 10 bpa below the current USDA figure. 

StoneX national soybean yield pegged at 51.3 bpa and compares to our estimate of 50.8 bpa in September and the USDA at 50.6 bpa. 

Don’t have to get too creative in the soybean soup to imagine a final 21/22 carryout pushing 400 mln bu level. But does take some imagination. 

Soybeans losing ground again overnight. SX21 off 1 3⁄4¢ at this writing had has seen a tight 5 1⁄2¢ range on thin volume. Spot month soybean price now the lowest since Christmas Eve. 

Quick look at spot month continuation chart shows soybeans have given back 50% of the entire $8.69 April of ’20 to May ’22 rally. Continuation chart also makes me wonder if $8.00 beans our in our future. 

Corn mkt giving up 5¢ overnight at $5.35 1⁄2. Sympathy with wheat? KC wheat getting smacked over 15¢ this morning. CZ21 volume to this point just over 15K contracts. 

Weekly export Inspections continue to show improvement with all, but one facility reported to be operating. Weekly shipments of corn and soybeans near 17 and 10 mln bu short of their respective targets. 

Corn maturity levels are 10% above the 5-year ave with soybeans 6% above. Corn harvest at 29% compares to the 5-year ave of 22% and just 15% a year ago. Soybean harvest at 34% up from 16% last week and 20% a year ago. SN harvest also 12% ahead of the 5-year ave. 

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