Mixed, two-sided overnight trade with corn in a tight 3 1⁄2¢ range, soybeans not
much better in a 4 3⁄4¢ range. Lead month corn vol at under 12K contracts. SX21
vol at just over 8K so far overnight. KC wheat recovering some ground this
morning after yesterday’s price pounding.
The old Informa group, now called HIS Markit (Sparks for the real old timers) has updated corn yield estimate of 176.8 and soybeans at 51.1 bpa. Corn yield up 1.4 bpa from their Sep estimate. Soybean yield estimated at 51.1 bpa up 1.1 bpa from their Sep estimate.
Last 10 trade sessions in soybeans have seen open interest up near 60K contracts. Higher in all but one with the odd man out down just 100 contracts. Corn OI also higher over the previous ten sessions for a total of 21K. Only two of those sessions saw lower OI. Hedge activity picking up in part.
Crude oil at $78.52 this morning. The highest price since November of ’14. Now $120.10 off the ridiculous April 1st of ’20 low. Just hit me that was April 1st.
USDA October Supply Demand report next Tuesday October 12th.
Census export data suggests USDA will increase 20/21 corn exports in the October report by 39 mln bu. Soybeans exports for 20/21 by just 4 mln bu.
Hedge activity remains on the lite side overall. Store / sell decision still ion front of us over most of the belt. Continue to hear commercials using dedicated corn bin space for beans.
Barchart yesterday estimated the U.S. corn yield at 180 BPA. Highest out there.
Soy oil led the charge in the bean complex yesterday and attributed to technical considerations as much as anything. Crush margin calculation later this morning will highlight that strength.
At 6:12 a.m., CZ21 off 3⁄4 of a cent and SX21 up shy of 2¢. Dow 338 lower.
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
E- mail: Bruce.Nelson@IFCS.com
1075 Jordan Creek Parkway Suite 300
West Des Moines, IA 50266
800-422-3087 Ext 3791