Early Market Talk October 7, 2021

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Narrow price ranges have been the recent norm in overnight trade. Continues into the current session. CZ21 shows a two sided 3 3⁄4¢ high to low overnight range. SX21 in a 5 3⁄4¢ range. Volume totals on lead contracts of corn and soybeans to this point near 12K contracts each.

At 0600 CZ21 trading 1 1⁄2¢ higher at $5.33 3⁄4 with SX21 2 1⁄2¢ higher at $12.44 1⁄2. Wheat complex higher as well led by MN up 7 1⁄4¢.

Dow futures 265 points higher this morning on the heels of yesterday’s impressive turnaround. Congress appears to have a deal that would raise the debt limit in the short term and avoid a government default. 

Yesterday saw corn and soybean open interest gain 1K and near 4K contracts respectfully. 

WASDE October crop report next Tuesday Oct 12th. Average trade guess on 21/22 corn carryout at 1,432 mln bu up 24 mln bu from September. ATG on soybean carryout at 300 mln bu is up 115 mln bu from the September report. 

Funds sold an estimated 6K corn over the previous two sessions. We have them net long 235K contracts. Net long in soybeans estimated at 44K contracts. 

Noted research house calling yesterday’s price weakness a correction. Last time I saw them call daily price weakness a correction it was the start of another leg down that totaled nearly 45¢. Suspect that could well be the case once more. 

Weekly ethanol production up 7%. Ethanol stocks fell 1.4% on the week. Weekly corn grind totaled 98.8 mln bu up 6.6 from the prior week and 1.38 mln bu below the weekly target needed to meet USDA’s projection. 

Quick look at ethanol margins to follow shortly. 

Weekly export sales report at 0730. Harvest rolls along ahead of some big rain forecast next week for portions of the WCB. 

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