Early Market Talk September 30, 2019

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Big rains totaling up to 13” late last week into the weekend over a large part of NW Ill and NE IA. Next 7 days shows rain totals for northern IA
approaching 5 – 6” in spots. N ½ of ILL to see 1 – 2” amounts this week. ECB will see harvest activity and expecting more yield reports to flow in.

At 0630 CZ19 trading $0.01 higher at $3.72 ½ with SX19 $0.08 ¾ higher at $8.91 ¾. Both on typical overnight vol. KC and Chi wheat trading firm.

Corn and soybeans trading this morning at the midpoint of previous two weeks price range. Last week largely uninspired trade with corn up $0.01
¾ and soybeans just ¾ of a cent higher. More of the same this week?

ATM CZ19 straddle trading near 20 cents for a price range of $3.90 - $3.70 which fits equilibrium models. ATM SX19 straddle near 32 cents.

NASS quarterly stocks report later this morning. Expecting only marginal changes from the September WASDE Supply / Demand report which
showed corn and soybean carryout of 2,445 and 1,005 mln bu respectively. Will be the largest corn carryout stocks since 4,260 mln bu
carryout in 87/88 and record large in soybeans.

CFTC data Friday showed Funds net short 162K contracts. Updated for balance of the week activity has them short 177K as of this morning.
Soybean net short 55K.

National Holiday in China starts tomorrow limiting meaningful trade news.

Multinational unloading SA corn into SE ports. Not unusual and USDA does have US corn imports at 50 mln bu this year. Estimated at 25 mln bu
the previous. Underscores however competitiveness of SA origin and calls into question the 19/20 US corn export forecast of 2,050 mln bu.

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