Early Market Talk September 10, 2019

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Conditions and timing right for a bounce in corn? Good start overnight in part due to a drop-in corn condition rating. If you told me also contributing to price strength were heavy overnight rains, I’d accept that too. Some heavy rains moving through Iowa overnight with street flooding on my way into the office.

At 0630 CZ19 trading $0.04 3/4 higher at $3.59 on vol of 21K contracts. SX19 $0.05 ½ higher at $8.63 ¼. Chi and KC wheat showing strength too.

Trade was expecting corn condition ratings to be unchanged and were 2 points lower at 55%. Ill G/E rating at 38% down 11% from two weeks ago with IA at 63% down 2% from two weeks ago. Soybean G/E rating unchanged at 55%.

A couple weeks back we looked at seasonal “bounces” in corn on or near the first of September. Will resend that later this morning. As mentioned above, conditions and timing may make this five years in a row of a decent price bounce.

CZCN settled at 30 cents yesterday and trading 29 ½ this morning. Shortfall in eastern belt production may keep spread tighter than many suspect. Lack of export demand however may mute production shortfall?

WASDE monthly Supply / Demand report Thursday. Ave trade guesses out and show expectations for marginal changes. Not the kind that would result in volatile price action. But that could have been said about several of the recent reports as well. Nature of a surprise is just that, a surprise.

As always, we go into this report open minded and prepared for anything with all orders entered and working if inside the daily price range. That includes spread orders.

Short covering the theme of the day…………

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