Early Market Talk September 11, 2020

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Impressive bean chart this morning. New high for the year with SX trading as much as 10¢ higher on big volume of 40K contracts. Fund long, Chinese buying and recent weather impact already in the price mix. Today’s USDA report better be more than mildly friendly.

At 0630 CZ20 trading 2 ¼¢ higher at $3.67 ¼ with SX20 6 ¼¢ high at $9.83 ¾. Chi and KC wheat 2 and 4 ¾¢ higher as well.

Dow futures up 140 points this morning with a tenuous looking price chart. Crude near unchanged. US $ Index showing weakness against the basket. Brazilian real at midpoint of its summer price range against the US $.

Report day with a 11:00am release. Ave trade guess numbers incorporated into current price levels and could be argued an additional premium for uncertainty.

As stated above, numbers today need to be tighter than trade guesses to keep price rolling. Beans continue to hold more “potential” than corn but needconfirmation.

Historically rare for USDA to make acreage changes in this report choosing to wait until October. Last corn acreage change was a 300K decline in harvested acres in ’06.

FSA program data released later this afternoon to answer some lingering acreage questions.

Soy / corn price ratio at 2.76 is high but a long way from spike highs seen multiple times above the $3.20 level.

Cargill has not re-delivered the 220 lots of corn stopped. No deliveries this morning. Two lots of soybeans on the street.

USDA export sales later this morning expected to show big China purchases.

Market set up for a buy the rumor sell the fact kind of session???????

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