Early Market Talk September 1, 2020


Market reacting to poor close yesterday and a StoneX production survey showing a smaller yield decline than social media has been promoting.

CZ20 trading off 4 ¼¢ at 0630 with SX210 off 2 ¾¢ at $9.50 ¾. Volume again heavy on these two options at 76 and 39K contracts. KC wheat trading the green side of unchanged.

Corn open interest higher yesterday for the first time since the rally started suggesting the short covering phase is over. Soybean OI up 9.4K contracts on the day.

Dow futures off 30 points this morning at 28,385. Dow hit a new high for the move yesterday and was up 2,097 pts for the month. Trading 1,145 pts below its mid-February high.

StoneX customer driven yield survey showed national corn yield at 179.6 bpa down 2.8 bpa from our August survey and 2.2 bpa below Aug USDA. National soybean yield at 52.9 bpa down from 54.2 bpa last month and USDA at 53.3 bpa. We had Iowa corn yield down 10. IL down 8 and MN off 2 bpa. NE went up 5 bpa, MO up 7 and IN also 5 higher. Barrage of other guesses soon to follow. USDA a week from this Friday.

Side note; Our survey uses NASS harvested acres so would not consider acreage lost in the August storm.

Decatur corn basis traded +30CU. No corn deliveries again overnight. Two lots of soybeans delivered yesterday put back out. No oil deliveries.

SXSF trading 6 ½¢ this morning.

CZCN hit 18 ½¢ yesterday. Long road to first notice day but one we will stand on.

Weather watching done for the year………

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