Early Market Talk September 13, 2021


Friday’s EMT mentioned “To ignite buying interest, this market needs a story it does not have today”. Didn’t get that with Friday’s USDA reports. Seasonal headwinds remain for corn and soybeans.

Trade talk of bullish outside day price action on daily corn and soybean price charts. Suspect that is wishful thinking. Harvest on the horizon and some better- than-expected yields starting to be heard in the western belt. 

Corn and soybean acreage numbers (corn harvested acres up 600K and soybeans off 300K) take that uncertainty off the table in future reports. 

Post report price action on Friday felt more like a deceased cat bounce than a trend / psychological directional change. Open interest dropped near 7K contracts on corn and up just over 1K contracts in soybeans. Corn volume Friday decent at near 450K contracts but half the volume seen the day of the August crop report. 

Starting the week with some pressure on price. Overnight trade opened steady / higher but started to slip within the opening hour. At 0600 CZ21 trading off 4 3⁄4¢ at $5.12 3⁄4 with SX21 4 1⁄4¢ lower at $12.82 1⁄4. Both showing typical overnight vol totals of near 12K on CZ and 14K on SX to this point. Wheat complex all under water as well this morning. 

Updated with CFTC data Friday, we now have Funds long a net 207K contracts of corn. We have them net long 61K contracts of soybeans. 

Estimated late Friday that 90% of the New Orleans area has power. Exports expected to resume in earnest in the next few weeks. Cargill in Reserve, LA and an ADM facility may take months to be pre-Ida operational. 

Export inspections get the usual look at 10:00 this morning. Crop progress and condition later this afternoon. 

Price against stocks to use scatter charts out to you later this morning.......... 

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