Early Market Talk September 18, 2019

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Overnight trade in corn traded as high as $3.70 before easing 2¢ this morning. At 0637 CZ19 up .5¢ at $3.68 ½ with SX19 1 ½¢ higher at $8.95. Low volume in both contracts this morning with both new crop contracts trading near 7,000 contracts apiece. 

CZ saw higher OI on lower price, meaning new short positions being added yesterday; typically a bearish signal. 

Chances of rain include the northern half of Iowa and most of MN today; with rainfall more widespread throughout Iowa tomorrow. Forecast for next few days maintaining the mid-80’s the next few days, with slightly cooler temps showing up further out in the 7-day. 

Not surprising to see the harvest pace behind the 5-year average. First harvest progress report on Monday afternoon showed the US 4% harvested. Last year 8%, with the average at 7% during this week. Similar delays can be seen in corn denting- 68% as of Sunday night vs. 92% last year & 87% on average. 

Illinois 99% dented last year at this time vs. 67% reported this year.. 

Federal Reserve concludes a 2-day meeting today. They are expected to cut the short-term benchmark rate by .25% to 1.75-2.00%. Reasons cited for cuts include trade policy uncertainty and slower inflation. 

Longer range forecasts for Brazil show light showers, but dryness continues to keep growers out of the soybean fields in majority of the region. Corn planting off to a slow start as well. 

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