Early Market Talk September 19, 2019

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Overnight corn trade mixed, trading sideways. At 0630, corn down .5¢ @ $3.70 ½ . New Crop soybeans traded as low as $8.86 overnight before rallying 2¢. At 0630, soybeans down ¼¢ at $8.88 ½. Both contracts lost Open Interest yesterday, with the soybean trade likely adding new shorts. 

Funds in Corn estimated to have bought +9000 yesterday, decreasing net short positions to -118,500. Soybean funds estimated to have sold -3,000 contracts, adding to a net short position equaling -75,000 contracts. 

US Dollar saw a spike yesterday immediately following the anticipated Fed rate decrease. Following the release, the Fed noted it doesn’t anticipate a further decrease in rates 2019-2020. 

5-day precipitation shows increased chances for the Eastern Texas region up into Iowa. Eastern Texas currently dealing with Tropical Depression Imelda, which is expected to drop a total of 25” across that area. 

Week-on-week ethanol inventory rose dramatically; adding 739,000 barrels to total 23.24 million barrels. 

October Crude Oil down $3.58/barrel from the post-attack close on 9/16. The last we’ve heard out of that region?? Doubtful. 

Informa estimates yesterday pegged 2020 US corn planted acreage just over 95 million acres and soybeans at 84.2 million acres. Totals plantings estimated up 12 million acres from crop year 2019. Weather obviously plays into the 12 mln number, but estimations no doubt counting on heavy corn acres. 95 million corn acres is a 6% increase from this crop year. 

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