Early Market Talk September 23, 2020

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Question of the day; Is China going to buy 34 mmt of US soybeans this year or more? Less? China to date has secured near 20 mmt of US soybeans which is a record for this date. The record total amount sold to China in a crop year was 36.7 mmt (1,348 mln bu) in the 16/17 crop year. Interesting the high on SX16 was $10.20 in the fall. SN17 broke nearly two bucks after the first of the year. More to price action than Chinese bean sales.

Softer markets at 0630 with CZ20 trading off 2¢ at $3.67 ¼ and SX20 1¢ lower at $10.18 ¾. Volume on these two so far at 17 and 35K contracts. Chi and KC wheat giving up some ground as well.

Dow futures 193 points higher this morning at 27,338. Crude a scratch higher at. $39.82.

Added thought on Chinese bean sales - Export sales to China just shy of 20 mmt but if one incorporates all the sales to “unknown”, that total jumps to near 30 mmt. Our best guess however is that a third of the 9.7 mmt to unknown is China. Would make to date China sales near 24 mmt.

SXSF hit 5 ¼ yesterday and trading 4 ½¢ this morning.

Take out the previous 4 days and SX20 still at a contract high. SX20 trading the highest this date in 6 years. Still hanging around phase two of the four phase marketing continuum.

Brazil forecast for October shows below normal rainfall across northern growing areas Near normal rainfall in southern Brazil. In November, drier weather expected to develop across Argentina and allow some dryness to redevelop across the region.

Funds credited with selling 1K corn and 2K soybeans yesterday. Net positions of 60K corn and 217K beans

Harvest gaining momentum…………………………..

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