Early Market Talk September 24, 2019

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Thin overnight volume with corn under pressure and soybeans holding steady. At 0600 CZ19 $0.02 ¾ lower at $3.70 ½ with SX19 unchanged at $8.92 ½. Chi and KC wheat giving up $0.05 and $0.03 respectively.

Dow futures higher this morning along with S&P 500 and Nasdaq after a quiet, mixed session Monday. Sideways action continues near record highs. Crude half a buck lower this morning at $58.12.

Corn seasonal rally over? CZ19 has carved out a $0.22 ¼ rally off the September 6th low of $3.52 ¼ and near the average seasonal rally of the previous four years. Recent history suggests sideways to lower into expiration?

CZ19 failed to take out previous highs yesterday adding some negative price vibes overnight.

Weekly crop progress showed corn G/E rating jump 2 points to 57% over the previous week and against trade expectations. Harvest progress reported at 7% compared to 11% average for this date. Look for that disparity to grow in the coming weeks.

Soybean G/E rating unchanged for the week at 54%. Soybeans dropping leaves at 34% and 25% behind the five-year average.

NOAA 7-day precip maps still show big rain for the week ahead with up to 4” total accumulations forecast for much of eastern Iowa and northern Illinois.

Confirmed US soy export business off PNW yesterday enough bull fuel for one day? A total of 22 million bushels confirmed.

Closer look at seasonal tendency on corn futures to follow shortly…

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