Early Market Talk September 26, 2019

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Mixed trade overnight with Tweets and comments from Chinese officials keeping optimism alive. Trump tweeted “A trade deal could happen sooner than you think”. Chinese officials saying China is in close communication with the US and preparing to make progress in the October talks.

At 0615 CZ19 trading fractionally higher at $3.75 with SX19 $0.03 ¼ higher at $8.92 ½. Both showing typical overnight volume. Chi and KC wheat showing strong gains of $0.07.

SX19 today trading $0.42 higher than this date a year ago. CZ19 trading $0.12 higher. Old crop soybean stocks today 610 mln bu larger than ayear ago this date. Old crop corn stocks near 440 mln bu larger. New crop expectations today have soy carryout 205 mln bu smaller than the projection a year ago with corn near 400 mln bu larger.

NASS September 1st stocks data released next Monday. Average trade guess for soybean stocks at 982 mln bu (Sept WASDE 1,005) and corn at 2,428 mln bu (Sept WASDE 2,445). A surprise potentially? Noted last week history shows trade has never been too far off with its estimate. Often asked question; where are those 2,445 mln bu?

Last week ethanol production slipped under 1 million gallons to 943K which is near 10% below a year ago.

NW Iowa continues to see some 30 / 35 cent basis premiums over gut slot levels. Did hear one end user paying a 60-cent premium over their last half October bid yesterday.

Weekly export sales report at 0730. Trade looking for corn sales up to 1 mmt and soybean sales of between 800 – 1,100K mt.

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