Early Market Talk September 27, 2019

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Corn unchanged for the week in a $0.07 ½ high to low range. Soybeans $0.04 ¼ higher for the week in a $0.16 ½ range set Monday.

At 0600 CZ19 and SX19 both trading $0.01 ¾ lower at $3.70 ¾ and $8.86 ¾ respectively and some of the lowest volume of the week. KC and Chi wheat roughly $0.03 higher.

Next Monday we see Sept 1st quarterly stocks data form NASS. Hard to imagine any attitude shifting numbers with both corn and soybean carryout at record large levels.

CFTC commitment of trader’s data this afternoon will reset trade guesses as to number of net shorts held by Funds. Commercial data also looked at.

Trade talk of china buying up to 6 mmt of US soybeans ahead of trade talks in October. Tariffs removed. US soybeans for Oct cheaper than SA without tariffs at $389 / mt PNW compared to $400 equivalent Brazil.

Yesterday we looked at Chinese soybean imports by source and the % imported by country. US share has been on a lower glide slope for years and the last two accelerated with trade issues. Even with a trade resolution we will likely continue to lose ground to SA.

Eastern belt corn basis continues well above historical norms. Have to wonder as we move into next year if they have “overbought. Big board carry and those kind of basis premiums are at odds with each other.

US corn exports forecast nearly unchanged yr/yr? With a sales number like yesterday let’s entertain the idea total US exports for the 19/20 crop year could be as much as 200 mln bu lower?

Whole lotta rain in the central Midwest over the next 7 days supportive?

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