Early Market Talk September 27, 2021


Low daily trade volumes continue. Friday noted in EMT that last Thursday’s corn trade was the lowest volume since Christmas eve. That has become the second lowest. Friday’s corn vol just 130K making it the lowest since then. Soybean vol at just 106K contracts Friday and the lowest daily vol total since I don’t know when.

This week not starting much better from a volume point of view. Overnight lead month trade volume at just under 9K corn and just over 13K soybeans to this point. CZ21 in a tight 2 1⁄4¢ range with soybeans barley into double digits. 

Funds remain long an estimated 212K contracts of corn. CFTC data Friday showed them not liquidating as much as trade assumed. Fund length in Soybeans now estimated at 54K contracts. Funds net long corn Since Oct of a year ago. Soybeans net long since August of a year ago. 

Noise from the East with disappointing yields. Iowa yields alone may offset them. Continue to hear some much better than expected yields across Iowa. More out of our friends in MN, SD, and NE this week I suspect. 

USDA Quarterly stocks data Thursday. Ave trade guess for corn stocks at 1,155 mln bu. A modest decline from the 1,187 mln bu in the September WASDE report. Soybean ave trade guess at 174 mln bu a scratch under the Sep WASDE estimate of 175 mln bu. Hard to imagine a surprise in this report but the history of the previous 18 months of USDA reports suggest we not rule one out. 

Record natural gas prices in Europe. Unintended consequences of Green Energy? 

Bulls in control of the narrative? Three sources now this morning talking about low corn yields in the ECB. Also noting poor early corn yields in Ukraine. Chatted up an old combine operator at a field edge last week. Said the filed he was in was the best corn that field had ever had. 

Export inspections at 10:00 this morning. Crop progress this afternoon. 

Harvest yield reports to intensify this week. 

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