Early Market Talk September 30, 2021

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NASS Quarterly stocks report at 11:00 this morning. Ave trade guess on corn ending stocks for the 20/21 crop year at 1,155 mln bu, 32 mln bu under the September WASDE report.

A year ago, NASS had corn stocks nearly 200 mln bu lower than the ave trade guess. CZ20 rallied 19¢ on the heels of the report and settled 14 1⁄4¢ higher on the day. Bullish soybean stocks number sparked a near 42¢ rally with SX20 settling 30 1⁄2¢ higher on the day. Surprises do happen in September reports. 

ATG on soybean stocks just a scratch under the 175 mln bu WASDE estimate earlier this month. 

A year ago, this date, corn was finishing the second month of the 5-month spot contract $4.04 1⁄4 rally. CZ21 now heading into the 5th month of a lower price trend and is 98¢ off the May 7th $6.38 high. 

Continue to hear fantastic bean yields in the western belt. Some tough yields to be sure but the majority extremely pleased given conditions. Early data suggests IA has the potential to test the ’16 state record of 60.5 bpa. USDA currently has IA at 58 bpa. 

Brazil seeing better rain this week and planting picking up speed. Parana pushing toward 10% complete by tomorrow. Rains in the south expected to push into northern areas. Bulls on Brazil weather need to wait. 

No meal deliveries against SMV21 this morning on first notice day. Soybean oil saw 89 lots put out. 

Ethanol production down 1.3% last week and the lowest weekly total of the month. Ethanol stocks increased 0.5% in the face of a 6% increase in gas consumption. 

Typical overnight trade volumes. At 0630 CZ21 trading up 1 1⁄4¢ at $5.40 1⁄4 with SX21 a scratch lower at $12.83 1⁄2. Dow futures 90 points higher at 34,355.

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