Early Market Talk September 5, 2019

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After two days of heavy Fund selling (sold a net 38K) and near 14 cent price drop, corn catching its breath overnight. Last two days have seen Funds buy 10K soybeans and have rallied price a dime. SX/CZ spread at $2.43 this morning and up from the low water mark of 1.98 June 11th.

At 0630 CZ19 trading $0.02 33/4 higher at $3.61 ¼ with SX19 $0.01 ¾ higher at $8.77 ¼. KC and Chi wheat $0.05 higher.

Dow futures 227 higher this morning at 26,599 on trade talk resumption in October. Crude oil trading a scratch lower at $56.10. USD $ Index after making a new high for the move Friday sharply lower again this morning.

FCStone yield survey released yesterday had corn yield of 168.4 and soybeans at 48.3 bpa. Corn yield was up 1 bpa from our initial Aug estimate and soybean yield up 1.1 bpa. Current estimate compares to Aug USDA at 169.5 and 28.5 bpa.

Allendale estimated 2019 U.S. corn yields at 167.7 bpa. Their Soybean yield pegged at 46.1 bpa

USDA Monthly Supply / Demand next week on the 12th. 

US Pork exports to China in July were 460% above a year ago and 286% above two years ago.

CZCN hit 29 ½ yesterday. Trading 28 ¾ this morning. 

Export sales delayed until tomorrow due to Labor Day Holiday Monday.

Another round of bottom pickers at work in corn today? Have seen a couple clear instances where those trying to pick a bottom in the corn market have been recycled. Third time a charm? Just might be…….

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