Early Market Talk September 7, 2021

Emtwebsite

Mixed, low volume, two sided trade to start the week. At 0530 CZ21 trading 1 1⁄4¢ lower at $5.22 1⁄2 and inside a rather narrow 4¢ range. SX21 trading up 6 1⁄4¢ at $12.98 1⁄4 inside a 7¢ range. Volume to this point on CZ and SX uninspired with 9 and 12K contracts respectively. KC, MN, and Chi wheat all trading both sides of unchanged and all higher at 0530.

Weather over the next two weeks looks largely dry and warm. Traveled through parts of NW Iowa over the weekend and lost count of the number of soybean fields that will have a combine in them in two weeks or sooner. A little surprised at the number. Majority still green and adding bushels, however. The 20/21 soybean basis game all but over. 

Few processors still holding a 40 / 50¢ old crop basis premium to new crop but the clock is ticking. Only beans in the elevator should be farmer owned or that bushel in the corner that absolutely can’t be physically moved. 

WASDE crop report Friday. Ave trade guess for the corn yield at 175.8 bpa up from 174.6 in August. ATG on soybean yield at 50.3 up .3 from the Aug WASDE estimate. Trade leaning toward an increase in 21/22 corn and soybean carryout with production and a few demand tweaks possible. Wild card, potential acreage changes. 

Couple contracts of Oats delivered overnight. Chi wheat saw 141 lots put out. No corn, beans, meal, or oil. 

Hurricane impact on Gulf grain operations to linger reduced elevation capacity an increased cost. Higher CIF and FOB prices from those limitations on capacity? PNW to benefit short term and before more normal operations resume which they no doubt will. 

Technical picture on corn still has the door open for a run well under the $5.00 mark. WASDE report Friday may go a long way to unlocking that possibility. SX21 also in a precarious spot technically with some negative technical signals still unfolding. 

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