Mixed, low volume, two sided trade to start the week. At 0530 CZ21 trading 1 1⁄4¢
lower at $5.22 1⁄2 and inside a rather narrow 4¢ range. SX21 trading up 6 1⁄4¢ at
$12.98 1⁄4 inside a 7¢ range. Volume to this point on CZ and SX uninspired with 9
and 12K contracts respectively. KC, MN, and Chi wheat all trading both sides of
unchanged and all higher at 0530.
Weather over the next two weeks looks largely dry and warm. Traveled through parts of NW Iowa over the weekend and lost count of the number of soybean fields that will have a combine in them in two weeks or sooner. A little surprised at the number. Majority still green and adding bushels, however. The 20/21 soybean basis game all but over.
Few processors still holding a 40 / 50¢ old crop basis premium to new crop but the clock is ticking. Only beans in the elevator should be farmer owned or that bushel in the corner that absolutely can’t be physically moved.
WASDE crop report Friday. Ave trade guess for the corn yield at 175.8 bpa up from 174.6 in August. ATG on soybean yield at 50.3 up .3 from the Aug WASDE estimate. Trade leaning toward an increase in 21/22 corn and soybean carryout with production and a few demand tweaks possible. Wild card, potential acreage changes.
Couple contracts of Oats delivered overnight. Chi wheat saw 141 lots put out. No corn, beans, meal, or oil.
Hurricane impact on Gulf grain operations to linger reduced elevation capacity an increased cost. Higher CIF and FOB prices from those limitations on capacity? PNW to benefit short term and before more normal operations resume which they no doubt will.
Technical picture on corn still has the door open for a run well under the $5.00 mark. WASDE report Friday may go a long way to unlocking that possibility. SX21 also in a precarious spot technically with some negative technical signals still unfolding.
INTL FCStone, Inc. and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of this information contained and expresses no solicitation to buy or sell futures, options on futures contracts, or OTC products. Commodity trading involves risks and past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any hypothetical examples given are exactly that and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses based on those examples. Reference to and discussion of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC. Reproduction without authorization is forbidden. All rights reserved.
E- mail: Bruce.Nelson@IFCS.com
1075 Jordan Creek Parkway Suite 300
West Des Moines, IA 50266
800-422-3087 Ext 3791