Early Market Talk September 12, 2019

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Report day with WASDE monthly S/D numbers and NASS production estimates which will be the first objective yield data for the ’19 crop.

Markets trading firm most of the night and at 0630 see CZ19 $0.01 higher at $3.61 with SX19 $0.07 ¾ higher at $8.74 ¼. Both on an uptick in volume. Chi and KC wheat trading firm as well.

Dow futures higher this morning and after a positive close yesterday, working on making it 7 straight higher sessions. Dow futures within 77 points of its all time high of 27,397 set July 15th.

Focus today largely centered on yield. In recent times the largest corn yield change was the 4.9 bpa decrease seen in 2011. Largest ever change was a 14.8 bpa decline in ’83. Over the last 10 years the soybean yield change between the Aug and Sep report has increased 8 times with 2 years lower. The largest decline over this time was a 1.4 bpa drop in 2013.

Largest ever soybean yield decline was, like corn, in ’83 with a 4.8 bpa loss. Nobody expecting a yield increase today.

Clock ticking on corn basis but still some best of the year trades made yesterday. ADM CR paying the equivalent of near +30CZ truck delivery. Just looking at posted bids, a 30-cent basis break looms. Producers holding old crop take note. That will go away! Extended price contract better than holding cash?

Some activity in PNW soybean markets yesterday making the recent noise of Chinese interest more believable.

Demand adjustments today offset any production loss?

Still like the idea of CZCN at 29 heading into the report. Struggling with ECB production loss against poor export outlook and delivery economics.

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