Early Market Talk September 9, 2020


Yesterday mentioned travels east on I80 showed crop damage severe but perhaps not as bad as I expected to see. Contact suggested I should have returned on Hwy 30 saying that route makes I80 look like paradise. Sticking with an Iowa corn yield of 192 bpa, 10 bpa below USDA in Aug.

At 0600 CZ20 giving up 1 ¾¢ at $3.60 with half the volume of yesterday to this point and inside a 1 ¾¢ range. SX20 up a penny at $9.75 on volume equaling corn at 16K. SX showing a 10 ¾¢ high to low price range overnight but has yet to take out yesterday’s high of $9.77.

SX has seen 11 straight higher closes. Going for 12 today.

Weekly crop condition rating on corn down 1% to 61% G/E. Soybean G/E rating also down 1% to 65%.

Iowa G/E rating at 43% compares to a year ago at 63% and the 5-year average of 72%. For perspective, last year’s Iowa corn yield was 198 bpa. Again, we are running with an Iowa yield estimate of 192 bpa. Remain in the camp of a national corn yield north of 178 bpa.

How much of crop ratings are cosmetic. It’s the first week of September and Iowa, MN .SD and Ne all running well ahead of normal in corn maturity, IA 16% ahead of ave with MN 17, SD 13 and NE 15. Eastern belt lagging in maturity with Ill 6 points behind with IN normal and OH 8 points behind.

Funds credited with buying 9K corn and 8K soybeans yesterday. Estimated long 17K corn and 182K soybeans.

For those keeping score, after yesterday’s flash sales announcement we now have a scratch over 15 mmt (563 mln bu) of soybeans sold to China. Thinking this is just over 50% of their annual take of US soybeans and baked into the 2,125- export total.

Heavy front end loaded export program has SXSF at 4 ¾ this morning.

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