Early Market Talk

Quiet overnight trade after sharp gains yesterday in true “Turn Around Tuesday” fashion. Markets continue in a sideways random walk looking for the next headline.

Low volume two-sided trade overnight and at 0630 CH19 is up a ½ cent at $3.78 ¾ with SH19 giving up a penny at $9.16 ½. KC and Chi wheat showing fractional gains on their lead contracts.

CFTC playing catch up with data and not surprising, Funds had sold far more futures than we and trade sources had guessed. Funds estimated near net even this morning after buying 17K yesterday. Fund long in soybeans estimated at
8K contracts.

Some best of the year corn basis sales made yesterday into the Cedar Rapids market. Combination of factors including weather and slow off farm movement contributing to overall bullish basis structure.

Trump said he is open to extending the March 1 deadline to raise tariffs on Chinese imports if both sides are close to agreement by the end of the month. Place your bets.

“Things continue to be less awful than expected”. That is a headline giving credit for three-day rally in world equity markets? Dow futures at 25,485 this morning, 79 points higher.

Some dry weather developing in SW Argentina and catching trade attention. It was a year ago through this period Arg soy production as crashing on dry weather. 

China corn rumors slipped into trade noise yesterday. US corn exports already at a record level and this potentially to add to that number.

I will be out of the office today visiting with producers and sharing some market observations…